Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, including loss of principal. You can lose some or all of the money that is invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The material contained herein is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute a recommendation of securities, securities portfolio, transactions or investment strategies. The projections were created based on hypothetical information, there is no guarantee that any of them will come true. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licenses. What happened: · The United States equity markets had another positive month in June. Technology was back in favor alongside energy which has been the best performing sector in 2021. The real estate and healthcare equity sectors also performed well in June. · The S&P 500 was up + 2.2% in June and has returned + 14.4% through the first half of the year, closing out the second quarter at record high levels. The NASDAQ Composite Index was up + 5.5% in June, bringing its year-to-date performance to + 12.5% (as of 06/30). The domestic small cap sector, measured by the Russell 2000 Index, also had positive returns during the month of June returning + 1.8% and + 17% over the first half of 2021. International equity markets continue to lag behind the United States. · The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Asia, Far East) was slightly negative in the month of June but still had a positive return over the second quarter + 5.1% and was + 8.8% year-to-date (June 30). Emerging markets were also positive for the quarter but trailed compared to the more developed markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned + 5% in the second quarter and + 7.5% over the first half of the year. · The fixed income markets also gained slightly in the month of June, with interest rates falling, the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index returned + 0.7% in the month of June and returned negative – 1.6% over the first half of the year. As default rates continued to drop, investors were willing to pay up for extra incremental yield buying lower credit quality bonds, as well as bonds with longer-dated maturities, so higher-yielding credit and more interest rate sensitive types of bonds have recently performed well. What we did: · We mostly stayed the course on our U.S. equities. We actively reduce our direct exposure to China. We took some gains, while in other positions we also realized some losses. We increased our cash position across our core equity and our growth portfolios (both hold over 4% cash now). · In our equity dividend strategy, we added a few new names increasing our targeted average yield to over 3.5%. Actively adjusting our portfolios during this period, we strive to provide our clients with the ability to lose less on the downside and gain more from the upside by buying fundamentally good companies that become cheaper during these down-market periods. · When it comes to fixed income & bonds, there is not much that we strongly view as attractive right now. We do not see the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing interest rates during uncertain times. U.S. Treasuries at these lower yields we still view as unattractive longer-term investments, being selective within the fixed income space will be key. Corporate bonds and higher-yielding bonds are likely to be in focus should yield pick back up and prices fall. What we are watching: · We are seeing domestic equity markets continue to lead upward, setting new record highs to go along with the accommodative monetary policy coming out of Washington D.C. International markets remain a laggard with COVID & the Delta variant concerns really starting to jeopardize the strength of the global recovery. · The Chinese Communist Party turned 100 recently and they clearly seem to be getting ready to challenge the United States as the other world’s economic superpower. China is taking a strong stance toward regulating their technology companies, with more oversight, the companies will have to move away from western investment capital. The goal is to bring home the investment returns and technologies back into China. · COVID and its variants are a major global concern dragging down what might be a speedier recovery. Large unvaccinated populations have seen a spike in cases recently as the summer months have gone on. How the governments around the globe decide to respond will be important, will the global recovery be stunted? · We think volatility is going to increase, since markets were up around 14%, measured by the S&P 500, over the first half of the year, we feel strongly about the possibility that equity markets will experience somewhat of a healthy pullback and then hopefully rally toward the end of the year. Corporate earnings from the second quarter will give us an insight into how the stimulus money is working its way through the economy. · Other questions to ask, what will come out of the eventual infrastructure bill, what are the changes to the corporate tax rate, are the recent economic inflation metrics here to stay or just transitory? Any changes to both our fiscal and monetary policies would certainly disrupt the markets. · We are keeping a keen eye on the political environment around the globe for any disruption in global trade or geopolitical tensions that could interrupt or upset the global recovery. · We expect sovereign governments to continue to challenge and regulate big tech companies, like Amazon, Facebook, and Google. The “crypto” industry will not be spared, eventually, global central banks will look to issue their own digital currencies. Ransomware attacks should concern both governments and companies alike, creating more of a need for a digitally secured world. · Plenty of variables to consider for the second half of 2021, we
What we did: What we are watching: We continue to keep an eye on the COVID-19 vaccination numbers globally, and how new COVID mutations and new waves might hinder recent efforts. Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, including loss of principal. You can lose some or all of the money that is invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The material contained herein is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute a recommendation of securities, securities portfolio, transactions or investment strategies. The projections were created based on hypothetical information, there is no guarantee that any of them will come true. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licenses.
What happened: What we did: What we are watching: Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, including loss of principal. You can lose some or all of the money that is invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The material contained herein is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute a recommendation of securities, securities portfolio, transactions or investment strategies. The projections were created based on hypothetical information, there is no guarantee that any of them will come true. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or services in any state in which the registered representative is not properly licensed.
What happened: · U.S. equities continued their upward movement from the pandemic lows seen in March of 2020. The first quarter ended strongly with March adding significant returns to an otherwise choppy year. With the S&P at +5.46%, DJIA +7.76 and NASDAQ only +2.78%, it was clear that a shift towards value has taken place. Small Caps outperformed all with the Russell 2000 up over 12.4% for the quarter. · International markets yet again have lagged the U.S., both in developed (+2.83%) and Emerging markets (1.95%). Global monetary supply continued to be increased by central banks, and the recent $1.9 Trillion stimulus from the Biden administration and a similar dollar amount in an infrastructure bill shows no sign of curtailing this massive amount of government spending and borrowing to fuel the economy. · While the massive spending in the US had surely been tailwind to the US equity markets, the fixed Income markets were challenged with a significant rise in inflation expectations. We saw a rise in the 10 Year US Treasury Yield of 81bps to 1.74%. The Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index returned a negative (3.37%) in the first quarter of 2021. What we did: · As we saw a rotation from Growth to Value (a flight towards quality), volatility pursued resulting both loses in some of our holdings as well as significant prices drops in other stocks that we had been watching. We chose to make the best out of the situation and actively realize loses for tax sensitive clients. We also took saw an opportunity to add some growth stocks that were previously viewed by us as overpriced (i.e., PTON) · We also made some tactile shifts such as adding direct exposure to Semiconductors via SMH. With a shortage in supply and growing demand (renewable energy) we saw this as both a short-term and longer-term opportunity. · While we believed the gap between value and growth had closed significantly, and value became more difficult to identify, we added some additional yield in our Equity Income strategy via high yield debt. We saw the space as attractive with equity valuations being where they are, the Fed fund rate remaining at zero and tons of monetary supply, making default in the high yield less likely. What we are watching: · We are looking to see a decrease in jobless claims, continued vaccination of adult populations (end of summer herd immunity), along with stimulus money pushing overall economic growth. · We are not overly concerned yet are anticipating some inflation and new money begins to circulate. However, hikes in federal tax rates and potential changes to the tax code on cap gains/ investment income could be a larger concern. · Proxy believes we will continue to see market volatility and we will be looking for the opportunities it will create to enter long-term investments at a fairer valuation. · We continue to keep an eye on the COVID-19 vaccination numbers globally, and how new COVID mutations and new waves might hinder recent efforts. Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, including loss of principal. You can lose some or all of the money that is invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The material contained herein is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute a recommendation of securities, securities portfolio, transactions or investment strategies. The projections were created based on hypothetical information, there is no guarantee that any of them will come true. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licenses.
What happened: What we did: What we are watching: We continue to keep an eye on the COVID-19 vaccination numbers globally, and how new COVID mutations and new waves might hinder recent efforts. Disclaimer: Investing in financial markets carries risk, including loss of principal. You can lose some or all of the money that is invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The material contained herein is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute a recommendation of securities, securities portfolio, transactions or investment strategies. The projections were created based on hypothetical information, there is no guarantee that any of them will come true. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licenses.
What happened: What we did: What we are watching: Our article may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this publication. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licensed.
What happened: What we did: What we are watching: Our article may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this publication. Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licensed.
What happened: · October saw continued volatility in the equity markets. The month leading up to the US Presidential elections looked as if global indexes might recover from September and approach previous All time highs, but retreated ending the month mostly flat. This mid month retread in the equity market can most simply be explained by the uncertainty surrounding the election as well as COVID-19 cases continuing to raise. All this also lead US fund flows to move out of equities towards the safety of bonds. · Even with Septembers sell off and October remaining mostly flat, Tech is still having a remarkable 2020, with the NASDAQ up over 22% YTD. However, there is a different story to be told for the DOW Industrial Index and US small cap Companies, represented by the Russell 2000 index, both down nearly 6% at the end of October. This continues to show a stark picture between the economy at-large, compared to “big tech” and which sectors were hurt by the pandemic. What we did: · Proxy managed equity-oriented clients, by holding steady in our allocation over the month with no changes to our Core Equity model. We maintained our model exospore to US equities utilizing IVV and QQQ, but have also kept some fixed income exposure via BND. The algorithm predicted little change through out the month and was spot on. · The Proxy Core Growth model held up well in the recently volatility, which offered the opportunity to add a few new positions. The strategy, while still heavy in high growth tech, did largely benefit from a few select names in the healthcare and consumer cycle sectors. What we are watching: · The US elections seems to be the sole focus both domestically and globally. With this very heated election coming to an end as the polls close November 6th, we wait to see if Dem. Joe Biden can hold his lead in the polls or in President Trump we remain on for another 4 years. With such a close race and President Trump already vocalizing concerns over voter fraud via mail in ballets, there is a chance this may drag on for months to come. Such a situation could be have a significant drag on economic recovery and the release of addition COVID relief funds. · We continue to closely monitor advances in COVID-19 vaccinations, as the winter months approach and cases continue to raise. · We remain poised to react quickly if the market does in fact correct again, while remaining consistent with our algorithmic approach in our Core models. Our article may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this publication.Proxy Financial is a registered investment adviser. Proxy and its Financial Advisors are not licensed in all states to offer securities and insurance products. This site is not a solicitation of interest in any of these products or service in any state which the registered representative is not properly licensed.
How did Proxy react in this scenario What we are monitoring for the near future: